Crush Liberalism

More fun with polls

Only in Liberal World would the following poll make any sense:

A recent poll in the state of Texas by The Texas Lyceum shows John McCain with a surprisingly small 5% lead over Barack Obama in the race for the presidency, 43%-38%, and also shows incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn with a razor-thin lead of 2% over Democratic Party challenger Rick Noriega, 38% -36%, in the race for a US Senate seat.

However, as usual, it’s important to look at the poll’s demographic break down — particularly by party affiliation.

The Texas Lyceum poll’s respondents self-identified 44% Dem and 32% Repub.

As we wrote back in April, a little historical perspective is in order:

Not only has a Democratic Party presidential nominee not carried Texas since 1976, but in the seven subsequent presidential elections since 1980, only Bill Clinton has come within 5% points of the Repubs’ presidential candidates (in 1992 and 1996). The five others lost by between 12.5% and 27.5% points.

But the Democratic Party’s weakness in Texas is not just about presidential races.

Since 1996, the Dems have not won a single statewide race in 74 tries. During that time, only nine Dem candidates received more than 45% of the vote (four in 1996, four in 1998, one in 2002); only three Dems have come within 5% points of their Repub opponents; only two have come within 2% points; only one has come within 1% point.

In the three Texas gubernatorial races since 1998, the Dems’ candidates have not received even 40% of the vote. In the three US Senate races since 2000, the Dems’ candidates have received more than 40% of the vote just once (43.32% in 2002).

To recap: Not only have Texas Dems lost their last 74 consecutive statewide races since 1996, they have fielded only three candidates who have come within 5% points of their Repub opponents in that 74-race stretch.

In light of these facts, in what world is it realistic for a pollster to assume that the Dems have a 12% advantage over the Repubs in party affiliation in the state of Texas?

Increasingly, it seems some pollsters need to put down the bong, the pipe, or that fourth martini glass before they decide to do a political poll — either that, or they need to see the doc about that fall when they hit their head perhaps much, much, much harder than they’d like to admit.

Nope…no liberal media bias!

June 28, 2008 Posted by crushliberalism | media bias, polls, Texas | Leave a Comment