CNN polls 27% more Dems and finds, as sheer luck would have it, more Dem support for ObamaCare!
Two out of three Americans who watched President Barack Obama’s health care reform speech Wednesday night favor his health care plans — a 14-point gain among speech-watchers, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national poll of people who tuned into Obama’s address Wednesday night to a joint session of Congress.
…
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted just before and just after the president’s speech, with 427 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. (Really? A whopping 27% oversample, and your margin of error is only 5%? – Ed.)The sample of speech-watchers in this poll was 45 percent Democratic and 18 percent Republican. Our best estimate of the number of Democrats in the voting age population as a whole indicates that the sample is about 8-10 points more Democratic than the population as a whole.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Reid in electoral jeopardy in NV?
Polls are mere snapshots in time, and as such, should be taken with a grain of salt…especially 14+ months in advance of an election. But man oh man, how awesomely McAwesome would this be?
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trailing a top Republican challenger by 11 points ahead of next year’s election, according to a new poll.
The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey, reported Sunday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, showed GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian leading Reid by 49 percent to 38 percent in Nevada.
Tarkanian is a former basketball player for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas and recently announced his candidacy.
The new poll also showed Sue Lowden, chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and a possible candidate, leading Reid by 45 percent to 40 percent.
In other words, Reid’s losing to pretty much anyone he faces! Ed’s got some great analysis of this, a snippet of which is here:
Under any other circumstances, that’s what Reid would do, but he can’t afford to retire now. He would be the second Democratic Senate Majority Leader in a row to get thrown out of office by his own constituents (Tom Daschle got a compulsory retirement from South Dakotans), and he can’t allow that to happen by default with a retirement. The embarrassment would permanently damage the Democratic agenda in the Senate and take what little luster remains of the Obama administration. The Democrats have to fight for Reid, which makes the stakes even higher for them — and the embarrassment even worse if he loses.
Will Reid try to save himself by retreating on ObamaCare and cap-and-trade? Normally I’d guess yes, but I’m not sure that Reid will get the luxury of listening to his constituents. If he wants a big Democratic Party rescue, he’ll need the national interests pushing for both big agenda items, especially the unions and the hard-Left organizers. Without them, he’s sunk, big warchest or not. Also, he’s probably boxed into the Obama agenda thanks to his actions this year and the yoke he shares with Nancy Pelosi and Obama. It’s probably too late to salvage independents in Nevada already.
If the NV GOP has any competency at all, running the commercial over and over again where Filthy Harry says the war in Iraq was lost (as well as hit parade of other Reidisms) ought to do the trick. How cool would it be to dispatch two consecutive Senate Democrat Leaders?
“You kids get off of my lawn!”
Obama’s approval below 50%
There may be hope for this country yet.
Exit prediction: The MSM will get wind of this, start pooping up the economy and burying bad news, just in time for midterms next year.
NYT/CBS propaganda, er “poll”, is a lie
I just had a flashback to “My Cousin Vinny” where Gambini says “Everything that guy just said was bull$h#t. Thank you.” Here is a link to the analysis, which you must read. Excerpt:
This is what propaganda looks like:
Americans overwhelmingly support substantial changes to the health care system and are strongly behind [72%] one of the most contentious proposals Congress is considering, a government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Bruce Kesler points out that — in traditional NYT/CBS fashion — the sample is badly skewed:
According to the actual poll data, of the 73% of respondents who said they voted in 2008 only 34% voted for McCain and 66% for Obama. The actual vote was 48% McCain.
This is a good example of why reading a poll is as much art as science, because the first problem is the percentage who say they voted in the 2008 election. In reality, no more than 62% of eligible voters cast ballots last year. Accordingly, the poll has sampled a lot of adults who were ineligible to vote… or, as often happens, respondents lied about voting. In such cases, the lie tends to skew in favor of the winner.
Fortunately, at least for the time being, it looks like Oprompter doesn’t have the votes to pass that socialist piece of garbage down our throats. But that may change after the ABC infomercial runs (without rebuttals, paid or otherwise).
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Shine coming off of Obama’s apple
That’s just a fancy Southern way of saying “The emporer has no clothes.” Work with me, people!
A new Zogby poll shows that the Obamessiah’s approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest levels thus far. Independents are also tilting back to the right. Insulting handicapped kids, bungling the AIG bonus situation, and laughing about the state of the economy on national TV (prompting Steve Kroft to ask if he was “punch drunk”) probably haven’t helped him much. Maybe I’m full of it here (and if history is any indicator, I probably am), but I would think that those people of this country who think he can handle the job would probably like to see less of him on Leno and more of him doing his actual job.
Well, at least he’s taking responsibility for the AIG bonus fiasco, right? Yeah, right.
Chris Buckley, offspring of conservative hero William F., voted for Obama because he didn’t like McCain. He actually thought Obamarx wasn’t going to govern from the left (was his dad ever that naive?). Imagine his surprise to find that we were right: O is a flaming liberal wolf in sheep’s clothing. Well, Buck’s still giving him some slack, but not a lot. Excerpt from his latest column:
In the midst of this bonfire of inanities, President Obama is pressing ahead with a $3.6 trillion budget, predicated on utterly unrealistic economic growth, even as the Congressional Budget Office is now projecting that this year’s deficit will soar past $1.8 trillion, 13 percent of the US economy. This would amount, as the Washington Post reports, to “the deepest well of red ink since the end of World War II.” According to the Post, the CBO is warning, ominously, that the result of this kind of borrowing and spending could lead to an exponentially expanding national debt that would “exceed 82 percent of the overall economy by 2019.”
President Obama came to office proclaiming that he aims to solve problems, not hand them on to our children. Most presidents say that sort of thing. But now we are in very dire straits, and that being the case, he will be held to account. It’s your legacy, sir, and let’s not hear any more about “inheriting the crisis.” You asked for the job. Meanwhile, let us hope that his talent for mastering a sérieux financial crisis are not on a level with the Special Olympians of Wall Street, and Congress. …
The excitable drama queen Andrew Sullivan has been all over Obama’s jock (figuratively, although he’d love for that to be literal) since 2004. As with C-Buck, Miss Andy wonders if Barry may possibly be incompetent, and that’s not good news for Uhhh-bama and his cultist followers.
Elections have consequences, people. If this country is smart enough (and the jury is still out on that), it will realize that you do not vote for politicians because they look good, speak well when staring at a teleprompter (as long as the word “Orion” is missing), shoot the three-ball in a pickup game of hoops, or hobnob with Hollyweirdos. You don’t vote for someone whose plans are laced with generalities and short on specifics while he/she is campaigning. You vote for a politician because he/she has great ideas and a proven track record of accomplishment…otherwise, you get stuck with Barack Obama and a bankrupting country.
Chambliss wins GA Senate runoff
The filibuster lives on. Details:
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) has resoundingly defeated Democrat Jim Martin in the Georgia Senate runoff, winning a second term and ending Democratic hopes of gaining a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
With 93 percent of precincts reporting, Chambliss leads Martin 58 to 42 percent and the AP has called the race for Chambliss.
Here’s what I think did Martin in:
Martin aligned himself closely with Obama, and was hoping that the president-elect would campaign for him in Georgia.
Brilliant, Martin: run in a cherry red state as a flaming liberal who vows to be Obama’s chief dog washer. Little wonder the dude lost.
The polls leading up to this race had it pretty close…and the polls were wrong. In case you haven’t figured it out by now, let me spell it out for you: polls suck.
“How Obama got elected”
This is a brand new web site that offers up equal parts of hilarity and frightening sadness. I used to think that people who voted for Democrats were simply misguided, not stupid. This is beginning to make me reconsider:
On November 4th, 2008 millions of Americans were shocked that a man of Barack Obama’s limited experience, extreme liberal positions and radical political alliances could be elected President of the United States. For many of these Americans, the explanation was rather simple… the news media, completely enamored with Obama, simply refused to do their job.
On Election day twelve Obama voters were interviewed extensively right after they voted to learn how the news media impacted their knowledge of what occurred during the campaign. These voters were chosen for their apparent intelligence/verbal abilities and willingness to express their opinions to a large audience. The rather shocking video below seeks to provide some insight into which information broke through the news media clutter and which did not.
The video clip is at the link, and you absolutely MUST see it for the hilarity/sadness factor. However, there is more:
Because obviously interviewing a relative handful of Obama voters, while interesting, is hardly scientific proof of anything, we also commissioned a Zogby telephone poll which asked the very same questions (as well as a few others) with similarly amazing results.
512 Obama Voters 11/13/08-11/15/08 MOE +/- 4.4 points
97.1% High School Graduate or higher, 55% College Graduates
Results to 12 simple Multiple Choice Questions
57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)
81.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)
82.6% could NOT correctly say that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)
88.4% could NOT correctly say that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)
56.1% could NOT correctly say Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).
And yet…..
Only 13.7% failed to identify Sarah Palin as the person on which their party spent $150,000 in clothes
Only 6.2% failed to identify Palin as the one with a pregnant teenage daughter
And 86.9 % thought that Palin said that she could see Russia from her “house,” even though that was Tina Fey who said that!!
Only 2.4% got at least 11 correct.
Only .5% got all of them correct. (And we “gave” one answer that was technically not Palin, but actually Tina Fey)
Ed concludes:
…the rest of these results show the abysmal state of media coverage of Barack Obama. It’s not that the voters couldn’t absorb data provided to them by the Tanning Bed Media; these voters quite obviously learned plenty about Sarah Palin. In the video, the subjects demonstrate that by assigning every stupid thing said on the campaign trail to Palin whether she said it or not. Meanwhile, no one can figure out what Barack Obama said, how he conducted his campaign, or his political history.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
I have always resented liberals who attribute idiocy to conservatives, as it reeks of condescension and elitism. But I’ll shoot straight with you folks: after visiting this site, it’s very difficult for me not to fall into the same mental trap by attributing idiocy to people who voted for Obama. I’m fighting it.
Another “polls are crap” post
Indulge me for a moment, friends.
The Freepers showed this around the 2004 elections. Zogby’s final projection was a narrow Bush popular vote win, but a decisive Kerry electoral vote win: 311-213 (with NV and CO too close to call). He projected Kerry to win FL (he lost by 5%), IA by 5% (he lost narrowly), and NM by 3% (he lost narrowly).
Zogs had these states being competitive losses for Kerry: NC (Kerry lost by 12%), TN (Kerry lost by 14%), WV (Kerry lost by 13%), and AR (Bush won by 10%). Seriously…a MA blue-blood effete liberal hanging in NC, TN, WV, and AR? Unlike Bubba, Zogs must have inhaled.
Anywho, sorry to beat a dead horse, but I think you get the idea: polls suck.
UPDATE: Exit polls crap?
UPDATES BELOW.
We saw in 2000 and 2004 that exit polls are pure crap. Jim Geraghty of NRO found some interesting stats that show this year will be no different with exit polls, with the following prediction:
Now, I’ll tell you now – polls close first in Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia and Virginia at 7 p.m. eastern Tuesday . I find it extremely likely that Indiana and Virginia will be called for Obama immediately after the polls close by at least one network, based on these exit polls that have fewer pro-McCain respondents.
The ingredients are there for a rerun of 2004, when the exit polls indicated a Kerry victory and deviated signficantly from the actual results.
Remember this prediction on election night to see if he was right.
UPDATE (11/01/2008 – 06:30 A.M. EST): Another indication that polls are crap? Zogby had The One up by five yesterday…and now has McCain ahead by 1% today! Sure, it gives us hope, and I’m not trying to be a buzzkill here, but I’m just saying once again that polls suck. Go vote, and trust God with the rest.
NYT/CBS completely submerged in Obama tank
NYT/CBS poll: Obama maintains “clear lead”, by 11%.”
If, by “clear lead”, you mean “3% – 4%” in multiple sources (including 4% in PA), then yeah…”clear lead”.
Like I said before: polls are crap. They never predict turnout.
Like I also said before: “Nope…no liberal media bias!”
UPDATE: Could Murtha lose? Poll suggest “maybe”!
UPDATES BELOW.
How awesome would it be for a true military hero (William Russell) to be supported by the “racists”/”rednecks” (to use Abscam Jack’s own words) in that district?
Murtha’s up by 4%, within the poll’s margin of error. At a time that the GOP could lose nearly every race, it would be poetic justice to see the Marine-slandering PA porkmeister lose!
UPDATE (10/23/2008 – 8:20 P.M. EST): Another poll shows Abscam Jack trailing 48% – 35%…dare we to hope? Sounds like ACORN needs to get crackin’ here.
Why polls are worthless
IBD/TIPP: Obama by 1.1%
AP: Obama by 1%
GWU/Battleground: Obama by 2%
al-Reuters/Zogby: Obama by 12%
ABC/comPost: Obama by 11%
All over the place. McCain folks will believe the first three, and Obama folks will believe the last two. There’s tons more out there, but I think you get the drift: right now, polls suck.
Troops not fond of Obama
Why our military personnel aren’t fond of a man who opposes their mission and wants them to lose, I have no idea. Anywho, from FNC:
A poll by the Military Times newspaper group suggests that there is overwhelming support for John McCain among U.S. troops in every branch of the armed forces by a nearly 3-1 margin.
According to the poll, 68 percent of active-duty and retired servicemen and women support McCain, while 23 percent support Barack Obama. The numbers are nearly identical among officers and enlisted troops.
…
U.S. troops also said in the poll that they prefer McCain to handle the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — 74 percent said McCain would perform better, while just 19 percent said Obama would.
…
Yet judging by the numbers, it appears that the Democratic party has not made many inroads into the traditionally Republican military. (Gee, go figure. – Ed.)
When the left says they “support the troops”, the troops are obviously not buying it.
Race tightens?
According to Drudge, “GALLUP’s ‘traditional’ likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll’s margin of error.”
Keep in mind that polls and diapers sometimes have a lot in common in terms of their content. That said, this thing could get entertaining after all.
comPost poll: Obama’s “big” lead
Wow…a 9% lead? That’s wildly different than every other poll out there. It’s almost as if they oversampled Democrats by 10% or something.
Actually, it’s exactly like that.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Poll tells us the obvious
From Gallup:
The distrust expressed in the 2004 and 2008 election seasons likely reflects the perception that the media have become increasingly partisan. In fact, Gallup finds Republicans particularly critical of the mass media and of its 2008 presidential election coverage. But interestingly, concern about media bias has been fairly constant over the years. This year, 47% perceive the news media to be too liberal and 13% perceive them to be too conservative (What?? – Ed.), with only 36% seeing media coverage as “about right.”
What I wouldn’t give to smoke whatever that 13% is smoking!
Poll: Liberals wants Supreme Court to rule on “fairness”, not Constitution
A scary, yet unsurprising, look in to the gourds of liberals. From Rasmussen:
While 82% of voters who support McCain believe the justices should rule on what is in the Constitution, just 29% of Barack Obama’s supporters agree. Just 11% of McCain supporters say judges should rule based on the judge’s sense of fairness, while nearly half (49%) of Obama supporters agree.
Remember this whenever you hear some brain-dead leftard rant about Bush supposedly “trashing the Constitution”, OK? The left cares about the Constitution only when it serves their interest. The rest of the time, it’s just a cocktail napkin that the Founding Fathers scribbled some words on the back of.
UPDATED: Zogby and Gallup: McCain up
UPDATES BELOW.
I don’t know how many different ways I can express my “polls with grain of salt” disclaimer, especially when one of them is the once-respected Zogby. But here you go anyway:
Zogby: 50% – 46%, outside the margin of error of 2.1% and with a large sample (roughly 2,300).
Gallup: 48% – 45%, outside the margin of error of 2% and with a large sample (nearly 2,800).
Zogby’s poll was taken Friday and Saturday (9/5 – 9/6). Gallup’s was taken entirely after Palin’s speech, but a third of the respondants were polled before McCain’s well-received speech.
Prediction #1: Barring some Dukakis-like screw-up by either candidate henceforth, look for this election to be a carbon copy of the last two elections…close, comes down to a state or two, and maybe not known for certain until the wee hours of the morn. Only time will tell.
Prediction #2: The tabloidal sharks running the MSM will kick up the smear machine into overdrive in the coming weeks, making what we’ve seen thus far look like a walk in the park.
UPDATE (09/08/2008 – 09:55 AM EST): USA Today is reporting that McCain is up 10% among likely voters. Even in my most optimistic scenarios, I don’t see that happening. At any rate, there it is.
Poll: MSM biased against (and trying to hurt) Palin
The hell you say! From Rasmussen:
Over half of U.S. voters (51%) think reporters are trying to hurt Sarah Palin with their news coverage, and 24% say those stories make them more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in November.
Thirty-nine percent (39%) also believe the GOP vice presidential nominee has better experience to be president of the United States than Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.
But 49% give Obama the edge on experience, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey – taken before Palin’s historic speech Wednesday night to the Republican National Convention.
That 49% number will come down after her speech last night. Note the numbers from independents:
While Republicans and Democrats predictably favor their party’s candidate by overwhelming margins, the experience gap among voters unaffiliated with either party is even narrower than the national totals. Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama has better experience to be president, but 37% say Palin does.
The potential problem for Democrats is that Obama, the junior U.S. senator from Illinois and a former state legislator, is the party’s standard-bearer, while Palin, an ex-mayor and now governor of Alaska, is number two on her party’s ticket. (Looks like Rasumussen gets it! – Ed.)
…
Among unaffiliated voters, 49% say reporters are trying to hurt Palin, while 32% say their coverage is unbiased. Only five percent (5%) say reporters are trying to help her.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Obama’s “bounce”?
If, by “bounce”, you mean the exact same location at the end of the DNC convention as before, then yeah…”bounce”! From Rasmussen:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention. …
There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.
There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement.
Even reliably anti-GOP pollster Zogby (yeah, the same guy that said Kerry was ahead in TN in 2004, only to lose by 15%) says the same thing.
Yeah, they’re just polls, which are quasi-meaningless at this point. But with the RNC convention scheduled for this week, that can’t make Obabykiller’s sycophants happy. However, a hurricane that could decimate the Gulf and steal media limelight from the RNC convention will more than make the left happy. Sickos.
al-Reuters/Zogby poll: McCain by 5
You guys know how I treat polls with a grain of salt, even if it’s a poll with numbers that I want to believe. Since this is a Zogby poll, I’m even more skeptical. In the mid-to-late 1990′s, Zogs had arguably the most reliable poll in the business. But ever since Bush was elected, Zogby (who is Arab) has released wildly pro-left “poll results” that greatly differ from reality.
For example, in 2004, his “polls” showed TN to be a toss-up between Bush and Kerry. No one in his right mind believed that a state that rejected its own (Al Gore) was going to vote for a Boston blue-blood liberal, and the final result was Bush by about 15%. Zogs also had Kerry by 1% in FL, which Bush won by 5%. There are other examples, but I think you get the point.
All that said, I find it telling that even Zogs has to report this bit of bad news for the Obamessiah. Excerpt:
McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.
The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama’s experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.
The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia’s invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.
“There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now,” pollster John Zogby said. “This is a significant ebb for Obama.”
McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy — an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election. …
Again, let me jump through hoops to stress that this is ONE poll and is merely a snapshot in time. We are about three months away from the election, and that is a political lifetime. However, times are not that rosy for The Chosen One right now, so he’ll need some more of that MSM fawning and adulation that followed him to Europe in order to further boost his chances.
Majority of veterans support McCain, don’t like Obama
Gee, go figure. From Rasmussen:
Voters who have served in the U.S. military favor John McCain over Barack Obama by a 56% to 37% margin.
This data, from a Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, is based upon interviews with 3,000 Likely Voters, including 588 voters who have served in the military. Voters with no military service favor Obama 50% to 43%.
…
In the new survey, 61% of military veterans have a favorable opinion of McCain while 46% say the same about Obama. Thirty-seven percent (37%) have an unfavorable opinion of McCain while 51% offer an unfavorable opinion of Obama.
Maybe it’s just that the vets like Juanny Mac better because he’s a vet, too. Um…no, that can’t be it. After all, Jean-Francois Heinz-Kerry (who is rumored to have served in Vietnam) is a vet, and he was roundly rejected by vets 2-to-1 in 2004. Perhaps there’s just something about anti-American anti-soldier leftists that rub veterans the wrong way?
Washington comPost poll uses a 52% Democrat sample!
A new comPost poll has the Obamessiah with an 8% national lead on McLame. You know how I feel about polls, but what gets me isn’t the fact that every reputable has the two essentially tied…it’s that this poll has a sample of 52% Democrats, counting “net leaned”!
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Obama to win in the South?
For those who harbor delusions that the Obamessiah will steal a state or two from Dixie, dream on. This column does a great job explaining the numbers, while conceding one point that I also concede, which is that there is one semi-Southern state that Barry O stands a reasonable chance of winning: Virginia.
But NC, MS, or GA? Fuggetaboutit.
More fun with polls
Only in Liberal World would the following poll make any sense:
A recent poll in the state of Texas by The Texas Lyceum shows John McCain with a surprisingly small 5% lead over Barack Obama in the race for the presidency, 43%-38%, and also shows incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn with a razor-thin lead of 2% over Democratic Party challenger Rick Noriega, 38% -36%, in the race for a US Senate seat.
However, as usual, it’s important to look at the poll’s demographic break down — particularly by party affiliation.
The Texas Lyceum poll’s respondents self-identified 44% Dem and 32% Repub.
As we wrote back in April, a little historical perspective is in order:
Not only has a Democratic Party presidential nominee not carried Texas since 1976, but in the seven subsequent presidential elections since 1980, only Bill Clinton has come within 5% points of the Repubs’ presidential candidates (in 1992 and 1996). The five others lost by between 12.5% and 27.5% points.
But the Democratic Party’s weakness in Texas is not just about presidential races.
Since 1996, the Dems have not won a single statewide race in 74 tries. During that time, only nine Dem candidates received more than 45% of the vote (four in 1996, four in 1998, one in 2002); only three Dems have come within 5% points of their Repub opponents; only two have come within 2% points; only one has come within 1% point.
In the three Texas gubernatorial races since 1998, the Dems’ candidates have not received even 40% of the vote. In the three US Senate races since 2000, the Dems’ candidates have received more than 40% of the vote just once (43.32% in 2002).
To recap: Not only have Texas Dems lost their last 74 consecutive statewide races since 1996, they have fielded only three candidates who have come within 5% points of their Repub opponents in that 74-race stretch.
In light of these facts, in what world is it realistic for a pollster to assume that the Dems have a 12% advantage over the Repubs in party affiliation in the state of Texas?
Increasingly, it seems some pollsters need to put down the bong, the pipe, or that fourth martini glass before they decide to do a political poll — either that, or they need to see the doc about that fall when they hit their head perhaps much, much, much harder than they’d like to admit.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
MSM euphemism of the day
A new poll by Time mirrors the one I linked to yesterday, which shows a virtual tie. Again, let me reiterate my distrust of polls, especially at this stage of the game. At any rate, note this snippet from the story:
McCain, a highly decorated Vietnam veteran, edged out Obama on national security issues. When asked who “would best protect the U.S. against terrorism,” 53% of respondents chose McCain to just 33% for Obama.
Wow…a 20% lead is considered “edging out” Barry O? Upon examining the parts of the poll where the Obamaliar leads by a smaller margin, such as his 6% lead over McAmnesty in female support or his 17% lead in Latino support, conspicuous by its absence is the expression “edging out”, dontcha think? But I’m sure that’s just an editorial oversight.
Nope…no liberal media bias!
Fun with polls
Over the last couple of days, two polls that always oversample Democrats showed the Obamaliar opening up a 15% lead over Juanny Mac. Today, Gallup releases a poll that shows a tie, 45%-45%. Those of you who have been here long enough realize that I take polls with a grain of salt, but I put them up anyway for your consumption.
Anywho, Stacy McCain (who is not related to presidential candidate Juan McAmnesty) has a great explanation as to why the polls have varied so widely:
Given the fact that huge numbers of eligible voters don’t vote, a pollster — if his poll results are to be useful or credible — must try to screen for “likely voters.” This is a doggone difficult thing to do, but it must be attempted, because voters and non-voters differ significantly in their preferences. Non-voters are more likely to support liberal policies and Democratic candidates (a source of endless frustration to liberal Democrats). So a poll that doesn’t properly screen for “likely voters” will always skew leftward (as was true of the Newsweek poll that surveyed “registered voters” rather than “likely voters”).
This is probably why early polls have historically overstated support for Democratic presidential candidates. The closer you get to Election Day, the easier it becomes to determine who the “likely voters” are. Thus, the samples in early polls contain lots of liberal-leaning eligible voters who, in the end, won’t actually bother to vote.
Newsweak, the LA Slimes, and See B.S. have always loaded up their polls with extra Democrats (usually 10-15% more), smaller samples, and registered voters, and as a result, they’re always off come election day (at least, in terms of percentages, though not always outcome). While I don’t know what party breakdown Gallup used here, at least their sample was respectable at 2,600.
To be fair, this Gallup poll also uses registered voters instead of likely voters. But if that’s the case, and since it’s a well-known fact that “registered voter” polls always overstate Democrat support, this little snapshot in time (obligatory “if true” disclaimer) isn’t good news for our pathologically lying Dem candidate.
CBS skews polls…again
Second verse, same as the first. From Hot Air:
CBS hits the ground first among general-election polls after the official end of the primaries, and no one should be surprised to see Barack Obama leading John McCain. The margin will surprise a few people, as McCain remains in throwing distance at six points back despite the usual skewing of the sample by CBS. McCain only trails by six, and Obama has a big problem among Hillary Clinton supporters:
Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama holds a six point lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain, a new CBS News poll finds. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.
The poll contains troubling signs for Obama as he looks to mobilize the Democratic Party behind him following his long and sometimes bitter battle with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, however.
Twelve percent of Democrats say they will support McCain in the general election. That’s higher than the 8 percent of Democrats who defected to President Bush in 2004. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters say they will back McCain instead of Obama in the general election.
McCain leads Obama by 8 points among registered independent voters, considered a key voting block in November. The Arizona senator leads Obama 46 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent of respondents undecided.
That last number should have tipped CBS that their sampling was off … again. If McCain leads among independent voters by eight points, it makes little sense that he would trail overall by six. When adding in the 12% of Democrats who plan to defect to McCain, the overall number appears impossible.
Of course, with the CBS poll, nothing is ever impossible; it’s just a matter of juggling the numbers. In their original sample, they surveyed 930 registered voters. The registration comprised 27% Republicans, 40.5% Democrats, and 32.5% independents. CBS thought those numbers looked incorrect, and so “weighted” the numbers to get a better representation of how CBS sees the electorate. The final breakdowns?
- Republicans – 25.5%
- Democrats – 41.5%
- Independents – 33%
CBS expanded the gap between Democrats and Republicans from 13.5% to 16%, while edging up independents slightly. Small wonder, then, that the Democrat leads in this poll. And that is among registered voters, not the far-more-predictive likely-voter samples, which tend to disfavor Democrats.
Even with that boost, the numbers do not look promising for Obama. Only 63% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters plan on voting for Barack Obama, while 22% plan on voting for John McCain. Another eight percent won’t vote at all, and only 7% claim to be undecided or don’t know how they plan to vote in the fall. That looks like a solid bloc of Democrats for McCain, especially given the option to choose Undecided and Won’t Vote instead of a binary McCain/Obama option. In contrast, John Kerry held all but 8% of Democrats in 2004 and still lost the race to George Bush — and Bush isn’t running this year.
This has become quite a pattern for See B.S., no? Nope…no liberal media bias!
Poll: Americans wants smaller government, lower taxes?
From Rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 62% of voters would prefer fewer government services with lower taxes. Nearly a third (29%) disagrees and would rather have a bigger government with higher taxes. Ten percent (10%) are not sure.
I’m not buying the results of this poll for one minute. I don’t think Rasmussen messed up in his polling methodology. Instead, I think the respondents weren’t honest. We live in the midst of the “gimme” generation As Neal Boortz points out:
But then when you dangle in front of them (the American people – Ed.) these fancy entitlement programs and wealth envy rhetoric, they are like fat kids at McDonalds … you can’t resist temptation, because it all looks so darn good.
Americans think Obama will lose Iraq war
The Rasmussen poll results show that half of Americans think we’ll win in Iraq if McCain is elected, while only one in five think we’ll win if the Obamessiah gets elected.
But I’ve got a depressing question: How many Americans actually want to win in Iraq? They know that we won’t if Obama gets elected, but do they care? According to the poll, men want to win while women just want to yank out the troops, consequences be damned.
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